In conclusion
California’s congressional delegation is predominately Democratic. A Texas gerrymander might be countered by Gov. Newsom’s plan, which would give his party five more seats.
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California’s redistricting battle is about to get out of control.
Democrats are rushing to complete a proposal that may skew the state’s congressional map in their favor and force California into yet another conflict with President Donald Trump as the Legislature returns to Sacramento today for the last month of its session.
The plan is criticized as a self-serving power grab by Republicans, who stand to lose over half of their state seats. However, advocates, notably by Governor Gavin Newsom, argue that by preventing Trump from manipulating the results of the 2026 midterm elections, they are preserving democracy.
Voters in California will probably make the final decision in a special election this November.
What you should know is as follows:
Wait, what is Newsom trying to do?
In a developing partisan battle that might decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives before a single vote is cast in November of next year, the governor is spearheading the Democratic reaction.
This began in Texas, thousands of miles from Sacramento. To strengthen the GOP’s slim majority in the House, Trump started putting pressure on Republican leaders there earlier this year to rewrite the country’s congressional boundaries. The president is concerned that Democrats would retake Congress in the 2026 election and sabotage the last two years of his tenure as his support rating declines.
The Texas Legislature is moving forward with a new map that could give Republicans control of five Democratic House seats, despite the fact that dozens of Democratic legislators have departed the state in protest. Similar measures are being considered by other conservative states, such as Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri.
In order to appease Democratic voters, Newsom has started a retaliatory redistricting process in California that will add five more seats with a Democratic leaning to the Texas plan.
At a rally last week that officially launched the campaign, Newsom declared, “Dear Donald Trump, you have poked the bear and we will punch back.” The glorious Golden State should not be messed with.
How would it work?
It’s not easy!
In contrast to Texas, where congressional borders are set by the Legislature, California voters in 2010 delegated that authority to a bipartisan citizen panel. To guarantee that each congressional district has about the same population, the commission creates a new map every ten years following the U.S. Census. In 2021, it last done so.
Newsom is suggesting that the commission be temporarily overruled in order to designate districts that are more Democratic-friendly until after the 2030 Census. Voters must be consulted in order to approve that.
A new map that Democratic officials had previously created in secret was eventually made public on Friday. Before the end of this week, the Legislature, which is composed of three-quarters Democrats, will decide to include that map on the ballot for a statewide special election on November 4.
Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, a Democrat from Salinas, said in a statement that voters will view the maps and make the final decision.
Why the rush?
Work your way backwards from June, when California’s primary election is scheduled. Candidates have until early March to make their declarations. In lieu of paying a filing fee, those who wish to gather signatures in order to be eligible can begin in December.
In order for candidates to truly know which people they need to approach, new congressional lines must be established by the end of the year.
Newsom wants to hold the special election on November 4 in order to combine it with the state’s local elections on that day. Ballots must be available by late September because state law mandates that election officials mail ballots to all voters beginning 29 days prior to the election, and to voters who are serving overseas and in the military 45 days prior.
According to the secretary of state’s office, the Legislature needs to take action by Friday in order to provide local election authorities enough time to meet the deadlines for an election on November 4. Even so, they will have a very busy month ahead of them.
How much will this cost?
The state has committed to paying for the costs counties would incur in holding an unplanned election, which won’t be inexpensive. About $200 million was spent on the latest state special election, which was a failed recall of Newsom in September 2021.
According to Newsom, there may be financial savings if the election is combined with the local elections that are already planned for November 4. Early estimates, however, are greater than those for the recall, ranging from $4 million in Fresno to $16 million in Riverside.
After the inaugural rally last week, Newsom told reporters that democracy had no price tag.
Will this plan succeed?
Although it’s a difficult task, Democrats are optimistic about their prospects.
Nearly two-thirds of California voters, according to a Politico poll, would rather keep the state’s independent redistricting commission in place than give the Legislature back control over drawing congressional borders.
However, it is not precisely what Newsom’s plan would accomplish. He has made it clear in his messaging that the commission would only be temporarily suspended due to what he claims is a political emergency brought on by Trump. The measure’s name, the Election Rigging Response Act, reflects this. When presented along similar lines, support was 52%, according to internal polls provided with MPs.
That might not be enough to survive a fierce campaign this fall that is anticipated to attract hundreds of millions of dollars in spending, even though it is sufficient to win in November. Longtime Republican donor Charles Munger, Jr., who contributed over $12 million to the effort to enact independent redistricting, has declared that he will once more part with his cash to support it.
Amy Thoma Tan, a spokesman for Munger’s campaign committee, stated in a statement that citizens, not politicians or partisan party insiders, should have the authority to draw the boundaries in addition to having the capacity to vote.
In a statement, the National Republican Congressional Committee declared its readiness to oppose Gavin Newsom’s unlawful attempt to seize power both in the legal system and at the voting booth.
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CalMatters has further information.
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