Chabria: How conflict with Iran could supercharge Trump’s domestic agenda

Published On: June 25, 2025

The risk of the United States being further drawn into a global battle has been somewhat reduced by the tense ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

However, a lot of Americans are approaching the Fourth of July with apprehension, if not outright fear, that such a war might still be imminent and that, as a result, there is currently a higher chance of a terrorist attack in the United States.

We are a nation on edge for a variety of reasons. Therefore, we must exercise caution to prevent our devotion to civil rights from being overshadowed by our worries.

According to Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University professor of government and author of How Democracies Die, autocrats nearly always exploit crises—sometimes genuine, sometimes fabricated, and sometimes exaggerated—to gain power.

It would be extremely extreme if any of the political analysts I’ve recently consulted believed that President Trump orchestrated the Iran bombing to further his domestic agenda. However, the majority agreed with Levitsky that authoritarians find the best opportunity to expand their domestic power at times of worry, when society is wary of outside threats, since individuals all too frequently voluntarily give up their liberties in exchange for what they believe to be protection.

According to UCLA law professor Hiroshi Motomura, who provided immigration policy advice to the Obama-Biden transition team, trade-offs indicate that Trump’s immigration policy and the Iran situation are intimately related.

California, and Los Angeles in particular, are the most likely to observe that junction of domestic and international policy more bluntly than any other region.

“The Trump administration is already pushing to see how far it can go,” Brad Jones told me, referring to Los Angeles as a test case. He teaches political science at the University of California, Davis.

“I think they’ll take full advantage of any opportunity to further their immigration agenda, as this is a very opportunistic presidency,” Jones stated.

The National Guard and Marines are already on the streets and under federal supervision, ostensibly due to the violent pandemonium engulfing Los Angeles. The courts have, for the time being, agreed with Trump that he has the authority to deploy troops on American territory, despite the fact that Angelenos are aware that this is absurd. Additionally, a narrative of lawlessness that appears to defend Trump’s crackdowns, including the arrest or incarceration of Democratic lawmakers, is being broadcast daily throughout most of America, which is swamped with right-wing versions of the current immigration protests.

Professor Benjamin Radd is a senior scholar at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and an authority on Iran. Last year, he appeared in the documentary War Game, which explored the possible course of a military rebellion in the US.

Shortly before the National Guard was sent to Los Angeles against the wishes of Governor Gavin Newsom, Radd was employed by a veterans organization—which he would not name—to predict the consequences of Trump federalizing the National Guard against governors’ wishes and turning them against the American people.

And now, look, here we are,” Radd remarked.

The Insurrection Act, a provision that might increase a president’s authority to use force within the United States, was not used by the fictitious Trump in his simulation.

In reality, though, there is a fear that Trump would do so either due to a real threat or one that has been fabricated. That would be a significant red line, according to Rudd.

“I’m waiting to see if this Donald Trump will actually do that,” he added, adding that using the act would allow him to exercise further emergency powers that are currently being blocked by the courts.

Rudd notes that there is a sizable Iranian American population in Los Angeles, of which he is a part.

Given that Japanese Americans were once considered a threat during World War II, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the government views this population as a possible threat if the Middle East conflict continues. Rudd noted that the government had previously arrested and expelled students who have voiced their opinions about the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but he did not believe that a widespread internment was likely.

When dealing with ethically diverse metropolises like Los Angeles, which contain a complicated mix of people from different backgrounds, who gets caught up in that? He queries.

Eleven undocumented Iranians have already been arrested nationwide in the past three days, according to the administration.

In a statement, Homeland Security Department spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin stated, “We have been saying we are getting the worst of the worst out, and we are.” We proactively fulfill President Trump’s directive to secure the nation rather than waiting for a military operation to take place.

Motomura claimed that Trump’s entire immigration strategy has been to paint immigrants as intruders and immigration as an invasion. Having a military confrontation with Iran enables Trump to use any moves by Iran or its allies as more proof of invasion… and as more evidence that he needs to take immediate, harsh action against enemies both foreign and domestic.

The Trump administration is obviously realizing the value of framing immigration as a national security crisis, according to Levitsky. He notes that this year’s deportations of Venezuelans to El Salvador were purportedly required because the Tren de Aragua gang members were portrayed as attacking America, even though there was scant proof of a planned invasion.

However, the myth of immigration as a foreign attack has persisted. Do you recall the days when shithole nations were allegedly deliberately closing their jails and mental facilities in order to send rapists and murderers to the United States?

In exchange for the idea of living in safer areas, many people accepted whatever rights were being violated by these deportations, despite the fact that the majority of individuals currently incarcerated in that Salvadoran jail are not violent offenders.

According to Levitsky, the administration is now more keen to take advantage of fear mongering and is searching for methods to utilize terms like emergency or insurgency that exempt it from legal restrictions. And one excellent method to do that is through battle.

Jones said that merely feeding fears that there are cells or individuals within who want to harm us could be sufficient cause for further rights violations.

Despite how dreadful all of that sounds, it’s crucial to keep in mind that it hasn’t happened yet and might never happen. Furthermore, even if it does, the people still have the ability to defend our civil rights.

According to Levitsky, there isn’t a single movement, a single group, a single leader, a single motto, a single tactic, or a single protest. People can show their disapproval of what is happening in a thousand different ways, but it is crucial that Americans participate.

Accepting that democracy is not a given and that American democracy lacks any unique survival capabilities is a component of that participation, he said.

Levitsky stated, “To be honest, that’s why we’re losing our democracy.” Brazilians are not affected by this issue. This issue does not exist for South Koreans. This is not an issue for Germans. This issue does not exist for people in Spain. Argentinians and Chileans do not face this issue.

Authoritarianism is ingrained in the common memory of all those societies. According to him, all of those societies understand what it’s like to lose a democracy. The Americans have no concept.

Trump and his potential actions are not yet our biggest threat. It’s our incapacity to accept that authoritarianism is actually encroaching on us and that it might occur here.

And that a democracy that once seemed invincible might be overthrown by nothing more than denial followed by terror.