- Tariffs and trade wars have dominated the news agenda for months, distracting from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine..
- Both countries find themselves at odds with the West, with Russia facing the threat of “very severe” U.S. sanctions.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine has alienated some European partners with a recent government reshuffle and reforms.
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It’s easy to forget that Russia and Ukraine’s military are still engaged in combat over every square inch of frontline territory in Ukraine during these turbulent times when trade wars dominate the news narrative.
More than three-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine are being pushed down the agenda by the conflict in Gaza, the continued economic turmoil in the United States and Europe, and the changing geopolitical landscape with conflicting and increasing “axes of power.”
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Even this week’s negotiations in Istanbul, which had negotiating teams from both sides, hardly received any media attention, suggesting that both Russia and Ukraine are being ignored more and more. There is currently a sense of unease regarding the course of the conflict and the likelihood of peace.
When Trump said on July 14 that Ukraine may get more American-made weaponry as long as NATO countries paid for them and offered Russia a 50-day window to achieve a peace agreement with Ukraine, he seemed to lose patience.He warned that if it didn’t, Russia would be subject to “secondary” tariffs of up to 100% and “very severe” consequences.
These might have a significant impact on Russia and its remaining commercial partners, like as China and India, who purchase Russian gas and oil, among other goods.
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Currently, despite some agreements on prisoner swaps, Russia has until September 2 to demonstrate its commitment to a ceasefire and peace plan, on which not much has been accomplished.
The prospect of additional sanctions is unlikely to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in sincere negotiations, much less speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to analysts.
According to Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, there is a lag between Trump’s call for a peace agreement and any additional penalties.
“The Kremlin is generally banking on the fact that the United States under Trump is incapable of a systematic policy of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia,” Bielieskov told NBC News in July.
“Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia,” he said.
Similar to this, the quantity and speed of supplies available right now are important when it comes to firearms. As a result, many unknowns are known. Additionally, he said, “I think Russia might think that the United States won’t dare to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners.”
Having been left to rely on the generosity of the United States and Europe in terms of arms supplies, Ukraine has demonstrated a greater willingness to engage in negotiations in recent months, joining Trump in pushing for an immediate truce with Russia.
Additionally, it has demonstrated a willingness to make concessions, including giving Moscow control over Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, in exchange for the nation’s “holy grail”—NATO membership.
However, there hasn’t been any indication that Russia, which is making modest but steady progress on the battlefield thanks to its overwhelming force of drafted soldiers and fierce drone warfare, would agree to any kind of security guarantees for Ukraine that the West has promised.
Growing domestic dissatisfaction, including concerns about the continuation of martial law, the absence of elections, and Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership, is making things worse for Kyiv.
A backlash to government actions to restrict the independence of two anti-corruption agency sparked protests in Kyiv last week. Prominent EU lawmakers were outraged by the shift to Politico, claiming it demonstrated a lack of dedication to upholding European democratic principles. Kyiv wants to join the EU, and fighting the country’s long-standing corruption is considered as a necessary condition.
Allegations that Zelenskyy was consolidating power among loyalists were further stoked by a mid-July government reshuffle, which may further raise worries among Ukraine’s foreign supporters and donors.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the head of the political analysis firm R. Politik, says Ukraine is about to enter “a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainty.”
“The latest battlefield developments coincide with a new American posture: Donald Trump has opted for tactical delay over decisive engagement, stepping back operationally while transferring financial and political responsibilities to Europe,” she stated in an emailed statement this week.
In the meantime, Kyiv is internally recalibrating during this lull. In the face of growing pessimism, institutional inertia, and a worsening labor crisis, the Zelenskyy administration’s intention to maintain unity and strengthen political control is demonstrated by the recent government reorganization, she continued.
Stanovaya pointed out that “international support is becoming more transactional, geared primarily towards sustaining the front line rather than advancing democratic reform,” despite growing Western concerns over Ukraine’s internal destiny.
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