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California is on a new political path with uncertain consequences, led by Governor Gavin Newsom and his fellow Democrats in the Legislature.
They say they are defending democracy against President Donald Trump’s power grab by altering the state’s 52 congressional districts to generate at least five extra Democratic representatives. In order to preserve the slim Republican congressional majority in the upcoming elections, Trump is pressuring Texas and other red states to redraw their congressional boundaries.
At a rally in Los Angeles on Thursday to kick off the redistricting campaign, Newsom declared, “Wake up, America.” Recognize the actions of Donald Trump. Awaken to his attack. Recognize the attack on history, knowledge, and institutions. Recognize his fight against the American people, his war against science, and his war against public health.
It is highly likely that Newsom’s three-bill package will pass this week, putting the gerrymander on the ballot for the special election on November 4. The new maps would remain in effect for three election cycles if voters accepted them, but Newsom has promised that the state’s independent redistricting committee would redistrict them once more following the 2030 census.
Given that nobody can foresee how any of this will play out, the situation encourages investigating possible outcomes.
For instance, Newsom claims that California’s gerrymander would only take place if Texas did it first, although Assembly Constitutional Amendment 8 states otherwise. According to ACA 8, the proposal would only go into effect if Texas, Florida, or another state chooses a new congressional district map that goes into force after August 1, 2025, but before January 1, 2031, and if a federal court decision does not mandate such redistricting.
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In other words, California might still be activated if any other state, including a blue state like Illinois, reorganizes its districts, even if the Texas or another red-state gerrymander does not take place for whatever reason. The hole is large enough to accommodate a semi-truck.
Let’s assume that Democrats receive at least 48 of the state’s 52 congressional seats as a result of the gerrymander being used for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 election cycles. After the 2030 census, would Democrats genuinely agree to return redistricting to the independent commission?
California will likely lose up to four seats following the census because of its very slow population growth. Democrats would be hesitant to relinquish gerrymandered seats if they were elected in 2026. There might be tremendous temptation to defend them by going back to the Legislature’s redistricting procedure, which had been in use for many years until the commission method was established in 2008.
Democrats would have every incentive to counteract the decline in California’s congressional delegation by reducing the number of Republican seats in the House if it were as evenly divided in 2030 as it is today.
What transpired after voters approved raising state taxes in 2012 sets the pattern for such a bait-and-switch tactic. A union-sponsored ballot item four years later maintained the higher income taxes in place for a another 12 years, until 2030, despite the ballot measures’ declaration that the new taxes would only be in place temporarily. The same interests want to seek another extension.
Last but not least, while it seems inevitable that the package—which also includes Senate Bill 280 to call for a special election and Assembly Bill 604 to outline the new districts—will be approved by lawmakers this week, voter support is far less clear. At best, polling indicates lukewarm support, and since House control may be on the line, Republicans will launch a well-funded campaign to defeat him.
Rejection would be a setback for Newsom, who clearly views the move as enhancing his national political profile and likely increasing his prospects of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
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Find out if your vote could be affected by Newsom s redistricting plans
Why California should avoid revenge politics and stay out of the redistricting wars
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