- The European Union’s Ursula von der Leyen will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade relations.
- “I think we have a good 50/50 chance. That’s a lot,” Trump said.
- Confirmation of the meeting comes amid a sense of growing optimism about the prospect of a tariff breakthrough.
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Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, will meet with Donald Trump, the president of the United States, in Scotland this weekend with the goal of reaching a framework trade agreement before a 30% tariff on EU imports goes into force.
Von der Leyen of the EU said Friday on the social media platform X that she had reached an agreement to meet with the president of the United States on Sunday “to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.”
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When Trump landed in Scotland on Friday night, he subsequently confirmed that the meeting would happen, adding, “We’ll see if we can make a deal.”
“I believe our chances are about 50/50. It’s a lot,” he continued.
According to sources who spoke to CNBC, the current base-case scenario for an agreement involves a 15% duty on EU imports to the U.S., which comes amid increased confidence about the possibility of a tariff breakthrough.
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The EU is considering countermeasures as part of its response to Trump’s plan to put 30% tariffs on EU exports starting on August 1.
According to EU statistics, the U.S. and EU have the greatest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world, accounting for 43% of the world’s gross domestic product and about 30% of worldwide trade in products and services.
It is also anticipated that Trump will have an informal meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his four-day trip to Scotland, which would primarily involve golf.
In contrast to the EU, the United Kingdom just signed a trade agreement with the Trump administration that focuses on imposing a 10% baseline tariff on British goods entering the United States.
Paula Pinho, the top spokesman for the European Commission, stated on Saturday that the EU and the US were engaged in “intensive negotiations” at the political and technical levels.
“Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic,” Pinho stated.
The recent announcement of a framework agreement between the U.S. and Japan has at least partially raised hopes that the U.S. and EU can avoid a transatlantic trade war by August 1.
In a social media tweet, Trump called the U.S.-Japan agreement “perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” and it contains a 15% baseline tariff rate.
A similar arrangement for the EU may be viewed as a situation where a bad deal is better than no deal at all, according to Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics, who made this statement on Friday.
“According to reports this week, the US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement that would impose a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the unit. Although it’s difficult to present it as a positive agreement, Allen-Reynolds stated in a research note that it would at least prevent far greater US tariffs and EU retaliation.
This report was contributed to by Silvia Amaro of CNBC.
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