The PresidentDonald Trump gave the Commerce Department instructions on Thursday to have the Census Bureau begin work on a new census that would not include illegal immigrants in the head count that determines federal expenditures and political power.
The Republican president stated on social media that the census will be based on current data and facts as well as—most importantly—the outcomes and knowledge gathered during the 2024 presidential election.
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It was unclear, according to experts, what Trump was specifically requesting, whether it was a mid-decade census or changes to the 2030 census, and if the latter, whether it would be used for a mid-decade apportionment—the process of allocating congressional seats among the states according to population count.
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Here are some responses to queries raised by Thursday’s post:
Can Trump change the census?
Experts say conducting a mid-decade census would be very challenging, if not impossible.
There would probably be a heated debate about any changes to the way the U.S. census is conducted, as they would need to be approved by Congress, which has oversight duties, and necessitate revisions to the Census Act.
A mid-decade head count is allowed by federal census legislation for purposes such as allocating federal funds, but it cannot be utilized for redistricting or apportionment and must be completed in a year that ends in five. Furthermore, the Census Bureau has interpreted the 14th Amendment’s requirement that all residents of each state be counted for apportionment to include all people living in the country, regardless of their immigration status. Although the Supreme Court has recently thwarted attempts to alter that understanding on procedural rather than legal grounds, federal courts have consistently upheld that interpretation.
He cannot order a new census on his own. Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former congressional staffer who advises on census matters, stated that the Constitution and other laws control the census.
And then there’s the logistical issue. The federal government’s largest non-military project is the once-every-ten years census, which employs hundreds of thousands of temporary workers. Up to ten years of planning may be required.
“This is not something that you can do overnight,” said Jeffrey Wice, a census and redistricting expert and professor at New York Law. It would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to bring everything together.
Has this ever been done before?
There has never been a census taken in the middle of a decade.
A mid-decade census was investigated in the 1970s because there was interest in creating data from the middle of the decade for more precise and ongoing information about American life. However, the congressional financing never materialized, according to Margo Anderson, a professor emerita at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and a prolific author on the census’s history.
Decades later, the American Community Survey—an annual survey of American life based on responses from 3.5 million households—was born out of same desires for continuous data.
During his first term, Republican President Trump signed orders that would have required the collection of citizenship data through administrative records and excluded individuals who were in the country illegally from the apportionment figures. He also failed to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census form.
When Democratic President Joe Biden arrived at the White House in January 2021, before the Census Bureau released the 2020 census results, the Supreme Court halted the attempt and both orders were revoked.
Legal issues would inevitably follow any effort at a rerun.
A head count is only one aspect of the census. The head of the ACLU Voting Rights project, Sophia Lin Lakin, said in a statement that it decides how important resources are distributed and is intended to represent America as it is, not how some would like it to be. No one ought to be removed from it. To ensure that all communities are represented, we won’t think twice about returning to court.
What is a census used for?
In addition to redrawing political districts and allocating congressional seats to the states, the data from the once-every-ten years census is used to determine how $2.8 trillion in government expenditure is allocated each year.
In addition to paying for health care, education, school lunch programs, child care, food assistance programs, and highway building, the federal funds are disbursed to state and local governments, nonprofit organizations, corporations, and families.
Why does Trump want to change the census?
Republicans and non-Hispanic whites may benefit from redrawing congressional and legislative districts based on the voting-age population of citizens rather than the entire population, according to a Republican redistricting expert.
Republican redistricting expert Tom Hofeller’s papers, according to critics, served as the basis for legislation this year by Republican lawmakers to include a citizenship question in the 2030 census questionnaire and for the first Trump administration’s attempt to limit the apportionment count. Trump has made no secret of his desire to keep the GOP majority in the upcoming midterm elections and expand the number of Republican seats in Congress.
Trump is urging Republicans in Texas to redistrict again, arguing they are entitled to five more Republican seats, despite the fact that redistricting normally takes place once every ten years after the census. Similar redistricting talks are also being held by Trump’s team in Missouri and Indiana, two other GOP-controlled states.
The attempt is seen by some detractors as a component of Trump’s larger campaign to seize control of the federal statistical system, which has long been regarded as the gold standard in the world.
After regular changes to the monthly jobs report revealed that companies added 258,000 fewer jobs than previously recorded in May and June, Trump removed Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, on Friday. The changes implied that Trump’s assertions of an economic boom have been undermined by a sharp decline in hiring.
Anderson claimed that Trump is essentially dismantling the federal statistical system. He needs statistics to back up his political achievements as he perceives them.
